9 dicembre forconi: 11/07/17

martedì 7 novembre 2017

Grandi città a rischio default: flop riscossione su multe e tasse

A Napoli la Corte dei conti ha appena calcolato che nel 2016 il Comune è riuscito a recuperare solo l’1,75% delle entrate scritte nei bilanci degli anni precedenti ma non incassate. Con questa «strutturale incapacità di riscossione», dicono i magistrati, non si va lontano: e senza un cambio di rotta immediato, da dettagliare entro metà dicembre, sarà dissesto.
A Roma l’anno scorso è entrato davvero in cassa solo un quarto delle multe imposte dal Comune per combattere la fretta degli automobilisti o le manie espansive dei tavolini di bar e ristoranti; per strada si è persa poi la metà di canoni e tariffe, dalle rette degli asili nido al trasporto scolastico. Con numeri di questo tipo, e con il maxi-credito vantato nei confronti di Atac ora al bivio fra la proposta di concordato all’esame del Tribunale e il fallimento, i conti rischiano sul serio.
E da Messina, eternamente alle prese con il piano anti-dissesto sotto esame e da anni senza certificati consuntivi, a Palermo, dove gli allarmi della magistratura contabile sono stati molti, l’elenco delle città in bilico si allunga; in una regione che ha appena visto saltare i conti di due scrigni del barocco come Modica (55mila abitanti) e Monreale (39mila).Parallela la vicenda di Torino, dove cambia il nome dell’azienda di trasporti (Gtt) ma non la possibilità che un suo default trascini nel baratro il Comune per l’effetto a catena dei crediti che cadono: il tutto mentre la magistratura ha contestato a sindaca e assessore al bilancio un falso ideologico, versione pubblica del falso in bilancio, sui 5 milioni di euro non restituiti a Ream, la società che ha acquisito la prelazione su un’area poi andata ad altri dove dovrebbe sorgere il nuovo centro congressi della città.

Dopo un lungo silenzio, i “fallimenti” comunali hanno ripreso a manifestarsi; ma ora la loro ombra non si aggira più solo negli enti medio-piccoli, e bussa alle porte di grandi città, dai piedi delle Alpi allo Stretto. Con conseguenze politiche pesanti, come mostra il lavorio intorno a manovra e decreto fiscale per salvare Torino (dirottando su Gtt 40 di milioni di fondi di coesione per non far fallire l’azienda ed evitare l’effetto domino su Palazzo di Città) e per non far capitolare Napoli in vista della bocciatura definitiva .
A spiegare il problema non sono tagli aggressivi o i vincoli del Patto di stabilità, entrambi usciti dalla scena della finanza locale
Nel complesso, anzi, il comparto dei Comuni mostra segni di buona salute, come indicano la discesa del debito registrata da Bankitalia e la ripresa degli investimenti certificata venerdì dall’Istat. Ogni città ha una storia a sé, ma dove i conti ballano c’è una malattia comune: gli inciampi della riscossione, che non riesce a portare nelle casse i soldi su cui si basa la capacità di spesa degli enti.
I grafici in queste pagine mostrano la capacità di ogni capoluogo di incassare nell’anno le entrate «accertate» a consuntivo, e quindi dovute (non si tratta di previsioni). Una quota di ritardo è fisiologica, per esempio per le multe che arrivano a dicembre e sono pagate l’anno dopo, ma i numeri qui accanto sono spesso da patologia. Proprio le multe sono la voce più critica: nel 2016 le città hanno scritto verbali per 1,7 miliardi, e ricevuto pagamenti per 599 milioni (il 35,1%).
Anche tariffe e canoni faticano a presentarsi puntuali (manca un euro su tre); un po’ più stabile è il quadro dei tributi, almeno dove le riscossioni di competenza superano l’80%, perché una quota dei ritardi è dovuta al calendario dei pagamenti dell’addizionale o della Tari. In media un euro su quattro non arriva entro fine anno, ma in casi come Napoli o Reggio Calabria l’indice scende di molto (a Vicenza invece il dato dipende solo dalla Tari riscossa tutta in conto residui).
IL QUADRO COMPLESSIVO 
Accertamenti e riscossioni effettive nell'anno di competenza nel totale dei capoluoghi di Provincia. Valori in miliardi. (Fonte: elaborazione del Sole 24 Ore sugli ultimi certificati di bilanco consuntivo dei Comuni)
Quello che non entra in cassa si trasforma in un arretrato (i «residui attivi»), nella speranza di essere recuperato negli anni successivi. Ma qui si nasconde il virus dei conti, come mostra la riforma dei bilanci. Le nuove regole hanno imposto ai sindaci di cancellare le vecchie entrate ormai impossibili da incassare: una pulizia straordinaria che ha fatto uscire dai bilanci la bellezza di 29,3 miliardi di arretrati (lo calcola la Ragioneria generale, che misura in 30,9 miliardi i «residui» ancora nei conti), aprendo un extra-deficit che una norma ponte permette di ripianare in 30 anni.

Nella manovra si riaccende intanto la battaglia sull’altra regola chiave della riforma, che impone di congelare in un fondo di garanzia una somma proporzionale alle mancate riscossioni. Già oggi il fondo blocca oltre tre miliardi, e la legge prevede di farlo crescere ancora: salita contro cui gli amministratori puntano i piedi, perché ogni euro congelato è un euro di spesa in meno.
Fonte: qui

Is Saudi Arabia Imploding Amidst Geo-Political & Financial Pandemonium?

So much has happened in Saudi Arabia in just the last three days. Here’s a recap and the latest…
First, there are geo-political tensions heating up right now between Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia and all the major nations of the war in massive war simulations:
Air-forces from nine countries with about 50 planes are now starting to drill in the most southern region of the country utilizing Uvda Air Base in Israel.  Teams from India, the United States, Greece, Poland, France, Italy and Germany with be flying over 300 sorties simulating ‘real war’.
Meanwhile, across the sand dunes this evening, a far more interesting story is developing, and could shed light on the end game for Blue Flag 2017. Yesterday we reported that the Saudis intercepted a ballistic missile over the nation’s capital of Riyadh. Now the Saudis call the missile attack “blatant act of aggression” by Iran and “could be considered act of war”. 
The smell of war is in the air and simultaneously Israel and other countries are drilling for ‘real war’. As, what we’ve seen before – drills sometime go live.
In addition to the geo-political tensions, the financial tensions have begun. The Saudis have begun freezing assets of those arrested in the crackdown over the weekend (see below for details):
Two days after the most stunning purge in recent Saudi history, the so-called “anti-corruption probe” – which was really a countercoup – that led to the arrest of dozens of Saudi Arabian royals, ministers and businessmen allowing Mohammed to further cement control over the Kingdom, appeared to be widening on Monday when, as Reuters reports, Saudi banks begun freezing the accounts of those arrested. The Saudi central bank ordered commercial banks to freeze the accounts of people under investigation in the probe, the Reuters sources said, adding that the number of accounts affected could run into the hundreds, although the names of those affected have yet to emerge.
“The freezing of accounts has already happened,” said another source. “The freezing is a precautionary measure that will end as soon as the suspects are either charged or pronounced innocent.” Considering that prince Alwaleed alone has over $19 billion in assets, including nearly a billion dollars in jewelry, plans, yachts, furniture and cash…
Meanwhile, to prevent royals from quietly fleeing the country, a no-fly list has been drawn up and security forces in some Saudi airports were barring owners of private jets from taking off without a permit, pan-Arab daily Al-Asharq Al-Awsat reported.
And as the crackdown extended, so did the confusion, and many analysts were puzzled by the targeting of technocrats like ousted Economy Minister Adel Faqieh and prominent businessmen on whom the kingdom is counting to boost the private sector and wean the economy off oil.
“It seems to run so counter to the long-term goal of foreign investment and more domestic investment and a strengthened private sector,” said Greg Gause, a Gulf expert at Texas A&M University. “If your goal really is anti-corruption, then you bring some cases. You don’t just arrest a bunch of really high-ranking people and emphasize that the rule of law is not really what guides your actions. It just runs so counter to what he seems to have staked quite a lot of his whole plan to.”
Robert Jordan, former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, says on Bloomberg TV, said that the Saudi Crown Prince’s anti-corruption drive, which included detaining Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, was “almost the equivalent of arresting Bill Gates.”
The Saudis have come to a fork in the road and they have taken it,” he said adding that “this is about the most breathtaking revelation I think we could possibly have imagined.
Finally, all of these major geo-political and financial upheavals have caused the Saudi Plunge Protection Team to kick it into high gear:
As the FX markets came to life last night after a tense weekend in the middle east, it is clear that anxiety about the Saudi Riyal is at the forefront.
Forward bets on devaluation/depegging surged most in 7 months as shares in bin-Talal’s Kingdom Holdings continued their slide to the lowest since Dec 2011.
The round-up risks overwhelming local and foreign investors struggling to get their heads around the rapid changes shaking the kingdom, but for the second day in a row, any selling was met by instant panic-buying as we suggest Saudi’s very own Plunge Protection Team stepped in…

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Here’s what happened over the weekend:
First, there was a “purge” of several high ranking officials suspected of corruption:
In a shocking development, late on Saturday the Saudi press reported that prominent billionaire, member of the royal Saudi family, and one of the biggest shareholders of Citi, News Corp. and Twitter – not to mention frequent CNBC guest – Al-Waleed bin Talal, along with ten senior princes, and some 38 ministers, has been arrested for corruption and money laundering charges on orders from the new anti-corruption committee headed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, while Royal princes’ private planes have been grounded.
King Salman also issued an decree forming an anti-corruption committee headed by the crown prince. Its powers include the ability to trace funds and assets, and prevent their transfer or liquidation on behalf of individuals or entities, along with the right to take any precautionary actions until cases are referred to relevant investigatory or judiciary authorities, according to a government statement.
 The committee’s formation was deemed necessary “due to the propensity of some people for abuse, putting their personal interest above public interest, and stealing public funds,” the Royal Order said.
Crown Prince: Every person, who has engaged in , regardless of their status, will be held accountable, provided there's evidence.
Then there was a helicopter crash the next day that killed 8 high ranking Saudis including a prince:
The shocking latest twist in what has been a chaotic weekend in Saudi Arabia is news that a helicopter transporting 8 high-ranking Saudi officials (including prince Mansour bin-Muqrin) has crashed in the south of the Kingdom, near the border with Yemen.
As PTI reports, a Saudi prince was killed today when a helicopter with several officials on board crashed near the kingdom’s southern border with war-torn Yemen, state television said.
The news channel Al-Ekhbariya announced the death of Prince Mansour bin Muqrin, the deputy governor of Asir province and son of a former crown prince.
It did not reveal the cause of the crash or the fate of the other officials aboard the aircraft.
The crash also comes after Saudi Arabia yesterday intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile near Riyadh’s international airport after it was fired from Yemen in an escalation of the kingdom’s war against Iran-backed Huthi rebels.
Following the death of Prince Mansour bin-Muqrin in a helicopter crash near the Yemen border yesterday, the Saudi Royal Court has confirmed the death of Prince Abdul Aziz bin Fahd – killed during a firefight as authorities attempted to arrest him.
The death has been confirmed by the Saudi royal court.
The Duran and Al-Masdar News both report that the prince died when his security contingent got into a firefight with regime gunmen attempting to make an arrest.
As Al Jazeera notes, in this Saudi version of ‘Game of Thrones’, the 32-year-old Bin Salman shows that he is willing to throw the entire region into jeopardy to wear the royal gown.
His actions have already all but destroyed the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC); Yemen can no longer be referred to as a functioning state; Egypt is a ticking time bomb; and now Lebanon may erupt.

There’s a lot to worry about.
Fonte: qui

The Central Bank Bubble: How Will It Burst?

Alberto Gallo of Algebris Investments steps up to take his shot at the $64,000 (more like trillion) question in a report published this week “The Central Bank Bubble: How Will It Burst?”
Gallo manages the Algebris Macro Credit Fund described as “an unconstrained strategy investing across global bond and credit markets, and with lead responsibility for Macro Strategies” on the company’s website.
Gallo sets the scene as follows.
Most investors are still playing the game, and in the same direction. We estimate there are currently around $11tn in negative-yielding bonds and over $2tn in strategies that explicitly or implicitly depend on stable volatility and asset correlations. If low interest rates and QE have been the lever pushing up prices of dividend and coupon-paying assets, central banks are the fulcrum.
This fulcrum is slowly shifting: the ECB has just announced a reduction in its bond purchase programme, the Bank of England is likely to hike this month – even in the face of economic weakness –the Fed will likely hike rates again in December, and the PBoC has recently warned of asset overvaluation.
One of our favourite parts of the report is “The Magic Money Tree” infographic which explains how QE has benefited a plethora of investment strategies and created the current bubble to end all bubbles.
Now Gallo is obviously savvy because he doesn’t nail his colours to the mast on one factor which will prick the central bank bubble. Instead he offers four scenarios. The first threat is a rise in inflation, which he summarises as follows.
1. Inflation: after nine years of low-flation, the probability of a sudden rise in inflation is increasing, as job markets get tighter, globalisation leaves way to protectionist policies and liquidity reaches job-creating small and medium businesses as banks re-start lending.
Wage inflation aside, Gallo believes China could continue to export inflation based on a more resilient than expected Chinese economy. Gallo believes that China may have sufficient policy options to smoothly deflate its credit bubble. While we might disagree, it is a possibility.
The second threat to the central bank bubble is…central bankers.
2. Central bankers themselves: central banks appear to have shifted their tone to worry increasingly about financial stability. There are good reasons to do so. We are many years into a global synchronous expansion, and there will be little monetary policy ammunition to fight a new slowdown, with interest rates near record lows and $20tn in global central bank balance sheets. In some countries, like Japan and Switzerland, central banks have grown their balance sheets to sizes similar to their respective economies. The good news is some central banks are trying to curb stimulus before their mandate ends. The Federal Reserve is poised to raise rates again in December, the Bank of England will likely hike, the ECB has announced a reduction in purchases and the Bank of Canada has hiked too. The bad news is that markets have so far largely ignored this reduction in stimulus.
It makes sense…central banks created the bubble via QE and ZIRP/NIRP, so reversing that strategy might prick their own bubble.
The third threat is another merry band of miscreants.
3. Politicians: central bank QE has not only lowered yields and boosted asset prices. It has also artificially suppressed volatility. Yet volatility may come back as the consequences of rising inequality in the distribution of wealth, opportunity and natural resources across the world. The last decade has been great for billionaires, not so good for Main Street. Inequality of wealth and opportunity in developed economies has fuelled anti-establishment protest votes like the ones for Brexit or President Trump. Other populist parties are on the rise in Continental Europe and Scandinavia. In turn, domestic populism and nationalism in developed countries can increase commercial conflict and protectionism - see for instance the potential withdrawal from NAFTA, or the EU-UK tariff threat - as well as exacerbate militarism and geopolitical conflict. Populism has historically fuelled government spending and fiscal stimulus, higher taxes and aggressive redistribution policies, which could all re-price overvalued assets and/or target assets used as a store of value. 
We have nothing to add.
4. The market: rising growth, low inflation and low interest rates have proven a boon to global markets. There are now $20tn in central bank assets globally, and around 10% of global sovereign debt is yielding negative. Investors have been buying equities for yield and bonds for capital gains, and have been selling volatility explicitly or positioned in strategies that are implicitly short volatility. These assume a stable volatility and correlation among the price of assets. For example, risk-parity strategies assume a negative correlation between risky assets, like stocks, and "risk-free assets", like U.S. treasuries. But what happens if both decline together, and short volatility investors become forced to unwind their portfolios?
Exactly, this is what we’re waiting for, but what is the catalyst? Nobody knows.
If we were forced to guess what will prick the bubble, we would probably place more emphasis on China than the Algebris report does. However, putting aside what causes it, we share Gallo’s view on some of the key mechanics which will be “in play” when a crisis unfolds.
What will the next crisis look like?
The over $2tn in explicit and implicit short-volatility strategies could be the spark, similar to sub-prime for credit markets in 2008, which was $1.4tn. However, a future crisis would be very different from 2008. Growth in passive investing vehicles and in the mismatch between assets they buy and liabilities they issue, lack of risk-free assets and growing collateral chains, diminishing trading liquidity due to higher capital requirements for dealers point to more fragility in financial markets.
It's perfectly set up, if we only knew when.
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Fonte: Z.H.
Full report below...