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giovedì 1 novembre 2018

A Perfect Storm Is Brewing


Will we someday look back on October 2018 as the turning point?  As the month began, people were generally feeling pretty good about things, and the U.S. stock market quickly set a new all-time high.  But from that point on, the wheels fell off for Wall Street.  We just witnessed the worst October for U.S. stocks since the financial crisis of 2008, and at this point more than 8 trillion dollars of global wealth has been completely wiped out.  But it isn’t just the stock market that is being shaken.  The horrific violence in Pittsburgh is just the latest in a string of events that have rattled the entire nation.  Sometimes I feel like I am literally watching the fabric of our society come apart right in front of my eyes.  It is almost as if there is a tangible presence of evil in the air, and it seems to be getting stronger over time.  For quite a while I have been warning that levels of anger and frustration are rising to unprecedented levels, and all of that anger and frustration is leading people to do things that are absolutely unthinkable.  And if people are this crazed now, how bad are things going to get once the economy really starts unraveling?

Let there be no doubt – if U.S. stocks crash really hard, it will cause a massive credit crunch, and that would absolutely strangle economic activity.
Yes, October was bad, but we can recover from what happened in October.
But if November and December are equally as bad or worse, we could have a nightmarish crisis on our hands very rapidly.  And many experts believe that this market is ultimately going to decline much, much further.
For example, just consider what Wolf Richter is saying
So it boils down to this: Some stocks have gotten crushed, but the market overall has barely been dented – though the fundamentals are rotten, shares are still ludicrously overpriced, enthusiasm is still exuberant except on bad days, and blind faith in annually rising stock prices still reigns. And the fact that stocks like Tesla [TSLA] or Netflix continue to levitate beyond all reality shows that this downturn has a long way, and years, to go.
And Chris Martenson expressed similar sentiments in his most recent article
The recent market weakness seen over the past two weeks is nothing compared to what’s in store.  As we’ve been carefully chronicling, bubbles burst from ‘the outside in’, starting at the weaker places at the periphery before progressing to the center.
Emerging market equities are now down -26% from their January highs and -18% year-to-date.  China’s stock market is down -32%, even with substantial intervention by the government to prop things up.
The periphery has been weakening all year, and the contagion has now spead worldwide.
But when I talk about a “perfect storm”, I am not just talking about money.
For years, I have been warning that the thin veneer of civilization that we all take for granted on a daily basis is rapidly disappearing, and the events of this past week made this exceedingly clear
Wednesday, a white man with a history of violence shot and killed two African-Americans, seemingly at random, at a Kentucky Kroger store following a failed attempt to barge into a black church.
After mail bombs were being sent to people who’d been criticized by the President, a suspect was arrested Friday — a man who had railed against Democrats and minorities with hate-filled messages online.
And Saturday morning, a man shouting anti-Semitic slurs opened fire at a Pittsburgh synagogue, killing 11 people attending Jewish services.
I will not ever be able to understand the kind of hate that we have been witnessing.  I have always preached against racism, and I even included an entire chapter against racism in my latest book.  There is absolutely no room for racism in America, but it just seems to keep growing.
We are facing overwhelming challenges as a society, and if we do not learn how to love one another there is no way that we are going to make it.
This is a time of great governmental shaking as well.  On November 6th, some candidates will win and some candidates will lose, but the hatred being expressed on both sides will not go away.  Sadly, the truth is that there are corrupt politicians all around us, and the American people have been rapidly losing faith in our system.  If the corruption is not cleaned up and some way is found to restore faith in our system of government, it is only a matter of time before it collapses.
On top of everything else, we also live at a time of impending global conflict.  A major regional war could erupt in the Middle East at any time, and Russia and China are openly warning that they are “preparing for war” with the United States.  World War 3 is a lot closer than people realize, and the fact that our relationships with both Russia and China are rapidly going downhill is a major concern.
And of course the planet itself is increasingly becoming unstable.  Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions appear to be growing in both size and intensity, and massive storms have been hammering communities all over the globe in recent months.
The giant rock that we all live on is rapidly changing, and many believe that the Earth changes that we are currently witnessing are going to escalate dramatically in the years ahead.
Many ordinary Americans seem unconcerned about everything that is going on, and perhaps that is because they are unaware of the bigger picture.  But the elite are definitely freaking out.  In fact, the New York Times just published an article about how demand for private security services is higher than ever
At Pinkerton, a private security and detective agency founded in 1850, requests for executive security have increased 20 to 30 percent annually over the last five years, said its vice chairman, Tim Williams. And people are looking for safeguards in all areas of their lives that pose risks, experts say, including information technology and social media.
“People are scared right now,” Mr. Williams said.
And some among the elite even have plans to hop on private jets and leave the country completely when everything starts hitting the fan.  For much more on this, please see my previous article entitled “Bankers And Tech Executives Know The Collapse Of Society Is Coming And Are Feverishly Prepping For It”.
We are entering a time that will cause many to have great fear, but now is not a time to be scared.
It is when times are the darkest that light is needed the most, and I believe that this coming “perfect storm” will be an absolutely thrilling time to be alive.
Yes, life is going to become a lot more uncomfortable for all of us, but it is during times of great challenge that we find out what is truly inside of us.  This will be a time when some will show that they are great villains, but many will also emerge as great heroes.
We have reached a critical juncture in human history, and everything is about to change.  I would encourage you to be a light in the darkness, because that is going to be greatly needed in the days ahead.
Fonte: qui
About the author: Michael Snyder is a nationally syndicated writer, media personality and political activist. He is publisher of The Most Important News and the author of four books including The Beginning Of The End and Living A Life That Really Matters.
The Last Days Warrior Summit is the premier online event of 2018 for Christians, Conservatives and Patriots.  It is a premium members-only international event that will empower and equip you with the knowledge and tools that you need as global events begin to escalate dramatically.  The speaker list includes Michael Snyder, Mike Adams, Dave Daubenmire, Ray Gano, Dr. Daniel Daves, Gary Kah, Justus Knight, Doug Krieger, Lyn Leahz, Laura Maxwell and many more. Full summit access will begin on October 25th, and if you would like to register for this unprecedented event you can do so right here.PritEquity Market Selloff Resembles Liquidity Squeeze of 2000

Equity Market Selloff Resembles Liquidity Squeeze of 2000

By Joseph Carson, Former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein.
The abrupt and sharp decline in equity prices in recent weeks has been largely pinned on the Federal Reserve as policymakers continue to move forward with their plan to raise official rates. Yet, the sell-off in the equity market is much more complex and in some ways resembles the early stages of the liquidity squeeze and the high equity valuations of 2000. Here’s why.
First, according to my estimates, the market valuation of household holdings of real and financial assets topped 6.1 times the level of nominal GDP at the end of Q3 2018, exceeding the peak valuations that occurred during the end of tech-equity bubble (5.1) and the housing-bubble (5.8). History shows that asset markets are most vulnerable when expectations of business profits and market returns outrun the economy’s fundamentals for a long period. In other words, the markets have a lot of good news priced in and need a constant of flow of even better news and more liquidity to continue to run hot.
Second, the liquidity backdrop is deteriorating. My proprietary liquidity index, which was developed years ago by the Department of Commerce and is based on the growth in real broad money, the change in business and consumer credit growth and new flows into liquid assets, has slowed dramatically over the course of the past year. The slowdown in liquidity growth has been underway for almost a year and resembles that of 2000. That by itself is a major warning sign for the financial markets, especially for the high-priced growth stocks.
Third, the US economy is absorbing more and more of the liquidity flows to finance the sharp acceleration in nominal GDP growth. Through the year ending in the third quarter of 2018 nominal GDP growth is estimated to have increased 5.5%, which is nearly 200 basis points faster than the average of the Nominal GDP growth rate of the past 8 years of the expansion and the fastest growth rate since early 2006. A large part of the acceleration in nominal GDP growth is directly linked to the changes in fiscal policy as Congress raised defense spending and discretionary domestic spending by over $300 billion for the next two fiscal years and also cut business and individuals taxes.
The bottom line is that the wide swing in equity prices is driven by confluence of factors and the revaluation process has just begun. The most important factor is the concomitant decline and shift in liquidity flows. To be sure, the collision between monetary policy draining liquidity and fiscal policy transferring more liquidity to the real economy results in a double whammy for the financial markets.
While some of these characteristics were also present in the tech-equity sell-off of 2000 what makes the current environment different and more risky is that asset valuations are at higher highs and stance of monetary policy is far from being even neutral. Indeed, today the real federal funds rate is still close to zero, and in 2000 it was around 400 basis points. As policymakers continue to lift official rates it's hard to see how that process of interest rate normalization does not lead to an additional squeeze on liquidity resulting in continued high volatility in financial markets, downward pressure on the market’s multiple and financial assets in general.

Stock Market Plunges Again – Global Stocks Down 5 Weeks In A Row – 8 Trillion Dollars In Wealth Wiped Out



It’s not over.  The worst October stock market crash since 2008 got even worse on Friday.  The Dow was down another 296 points, the S&P 500 briefly dipped into correction territory, and it was another bloodbath for tech stocks.  On Wednesday, I warned that there would be a bounce, and we saw that happen on Thursday.  But the bounce didn’t extend into Friday.  Instead, we witnessed another wave of panic selling, and that has many investors extremely concerned about what will happen next week.  Overall, global stocks have now fallen for five weeks in a row, and during that time more than 8 trillion dollars in global wealth has been wiped out.  That is the fastest plunge in global stock market wealth since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and it is yet another confirmation that a major turning point has arrived.

The wild swings up and down that we witnessed this week are very reminiscent of what we saw in 2008.
Markets just don’t go down in a straight line.  In fact, some of the best days in all of Wall Street history happened right in the middle of the last financial crisis.
When markets are very volatile, the overall trend tends to be down.  So what investors should be hoping for are extremely boring days on Wall Street when not much happens.  That has been the usual state of affairs for much of the past decade, but now volatility has returned with a vengeance.  The following is how CNBC summarized the carnage that we witnessed on Friday…
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 296.24 points lower at 24,688.31 after dropping 539 points at its lows of the day. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.1 percent to 7,167.21. At its lows, the tech-heavy Nasdaq had fallen more than 3 percent.
The S&P 500 fell 1.7 percent to 2,658.69 and briefly entered into correction territory, trading more than 10 percent below its record high reached in September. The average stock market correction, since WWII, results in a 13 percent drop and lasts for four months if it does not turn into a full-fledged bear market.
Larry Benedict, CEO of The Opportunistic Trader, said traders “don’t want to be long heading into the weekend.” He added, “S&P now down on the year and people are more afraid to be long today than they were when market was 10 percent higher.”
And when you step back and take a longer-term view of things, the devastation is breathtaking.  The following facts come from Zero Hedge
  • Dow down 9% from record high (down 4 of last 5 weeks)
  • S&P down 10.1% from record high (down 4 of last 5 weeks)
  • Nasdaq down 13% from record high (down 4 weeks in a row)
  • Dow Transports down 15.2% from record high (down 6 weeks in a row)
  • Small Caps down 15.8% from record high (down 6 weeks in a row)
More importantly, global systemically important bank stocks have now fallen for 5 weeks in a row, and they have now plunged more than 30 percent from the peak.
In other words, the “too big to fail banks” around the world have already seen almost a third of their value wiped out.
There are quite a few global candidates that could potentially become “the next Lehman Brothers”, and once one “too big to fail bank” goes down, it could escalate this new financial crisis very rapidly.
But for most ordinary Americans, the main concern is about keeping their own money safe.  Thanks to low returns almost everywhere else, more retirement money is in the stock market than ever before, and many Americans are very anxious about what a stock market crash would mean for their savings…
Nearly 40 percent of Americans said they were “anxious” about stock market volatility, according to Allianz Life’s 2018 Market Perceptions study, mainly because they worried they would not be able to protect their retirement savings.
In the end, a lot of people are going to get completely wiped out.
Hopefully you will not be one of them.
Of course the mainstream media continues to insist that everything is going to be just fine.  In fact, CNN is telling people that now is “a good time for investors to double down on their investments”
Experts say big sell-offs are often a good time for investors to double down on their investments. One recommended looking for companies that are expected to post healthy gains in sales and earnings. A strong balance sheet and a steadily growing dividend don’t hurt either.
“With earnings season in full force, this is when stock pickers can add a lot of value,” said Ernesto Ramos, managing director of active equities with BMO Global Asset Management. “There really was no good reason for the market to be down as much as it was Wednesday.”
That is about the exact opposite from the advice that they should be giving, but unfortunately this is the narrative that we get from the corporate media before every major crisis.
October has historically been the most volatile month for stocks, and without a doubt this has been a wild month.  Of course the midterm elections are coming up early next month, and those results could potentially spook investors.  But once we get past that, hopefully the markets will start to settle down.
But if things continue to unfold as they did in 2008, this crisis could continue to escalate during the months ahead, and that would especially be true if some sort of “trigger event” sent a major surge of panic through the marketplace.
At this point, investors are extremely jumpy.  For example, even though Amazon reported very good earnings this week, the stock crashed on Friday because revenue growth was slightly below expectations.
Any piece of bad news could send the markets tumbling right now, and if a major disaster were to happen we could be talking about a total collapse.
About the author: Michael Snyder is a nationally syndicated writer, media personality and political activist. He is publisher of The Most Important News and the author of four books including The Beginning Of The End and Living A Life That Really Matters.
The Last Days Warrior Summit is the premier online event of 2018 for Christians, Conservatives and Patriots.  It is a premium members-only international event that will empower and equip you with the knowledge and tools that you need as global events begin to escalate dramatically.  The speaker list includes Michael Snyder, Mike Adams, Dave Daubenmire, Ray Gano, Dr. Daniel Daves, Gary Kah, Justus Knight, Doug Krieger, Lyn Leahz, Laura Maxwell and many more. Full summit access will begin on October 25th, and if you would like to register for this unprecedented event you can do so right here.
Fonte: qui

THE US DOLLAR IS DONE: China & Saudi Arabia Will Trade Oil In Yuan

KSA has been trading their oil to China for dollars for decades. China’s looking to change that, and the rest of the world will follow suit. Here’s more…
Josh Sigurdson talks with author and economic analyst John Sneisen about the currency swaps happening across the board as China convinces Saudi Arabia to trade oil in Yuan.
For years, Saudi Arabia has traded with China in US Dollars, the world reserve currency, frustrating China. Well now, as the US dollar sees its inevitable precipice, China says they will compel Saudi Arabia to trade oil in Yuan! If this is done, most experts believe the rest of the oil market will move with them.
China has been attempting to establish itself as the world reserve currency for quite some time as power incrementally shifts. It’s a massive phenomenon that’s not likely to stop any time soon.
Saudi Arabia is the kingpin of OPEC and the IMF is looking to base its headquarters in China in the next few years if all works out as planned.
This isn’t to mention the fact that China is pushing its centrally planned digital currency system or cashless society as the state gets more technocratic by the day, pushing social credit scores and examining every square foot with facial recognition technology.
Individuals must decentralize and find a way out of this dependent system or being forced into it with little recourse. Self sustainability and independence is key!


Fonte: qui

giovedì 12 luglio 2018

Iran Sanctions Are Different This Time

The Trump administration is trying to replicate the Obama-era strategy of shutting in Iranian oil exports as a way to pressure the regime into making a series of concessions. But there are several reasons why Trump may not succeed.
It isn’t that Trump’s sanctions won’t be as effective, despite the refusal of the rest of the international coalition to go along with Washington’s isolation campaign. In fact, even though the EU, in particular, is hoping to shield Iran from the wrath of the U.S. Treasury, international companies are packing up and leaving Iran and refiners around the globe are starting to cut their oil imports from Iran. So, yes, there is every reason to believe that the sanctions will have real bite.
The main problem that could frustrate the Trump administration is the oil market, which is in a very different place than it was in 2012-2015. The oil market is tighter than it has been in years, which could ultimately force the U.S. to go easier on Iran than it would like.
A cursory glance at oil prices for the period in which the Obama administration pushed sanctions on Iran shows elevated prices, which would lead one into thinking that the Obama administration also had to contend with a tight oil market. Brent crude routinely topped $100 per barrel during a time in which Iran saw around 1 million barrels per day of exports disrupted.
Brent is now significantly lower than that, so Trump should have no problem cutting Iranian supply off once again, right? Not so fast.
President Obama had the fortune of an exploding U.S. shale sector. It probably wasn’t obvious to the Obama administration what was unfolding in North Dakota and Texas when sanctions on Iran really started to hurt in 2012. U.S. oil production skyrocketed between 2012 and 2014, rising by over 3 mb/d, which more than compensated for the 1 mb/d of lost Iranian supply.
To be sure, the Trump administration is also presiding over a shale boom. U.S. production is up about 1.6 mb/d since Trump took office, and output in 2018 has increased by around 400,000 bpd year-to-date. However, the problem for Trump is that Permian bottlenecks  could mean that additional growth slows to a crawl, at least for the next year or so.
That means that as the U.S. begins to cut into Iranian supply, U.S. shale drillers will not be able to compensate for the losses.
(Click to enlarge)
It isn’t just about U.S. supply versus Iranian supply though. The broader market is trending in a much tighter direction than it was back then, despite the difference in prices. Outages in Venezuela, Libya and Angola have tightened the market much faster than expected. More importantly, at least in the case of Venezuela, the losses are set to deepen.
Then, of course, there is the decline of inventories, which has picked up pace this year. OPEC+ has spent a year and a half trying to get inventories back to the five-year average, an objective that was achieved earlier this year. But now, because the current supply/demand balance reflects a deficit, inventories are set to continue to decline.
“The previous sanctions episode was only possible, in our view, because U.S. shale production was growing at a very fast clip and Libyan output came back to the market to replace some of the missing Iran barrels,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a research note.
“Plus, other OPEC members were still running with some spare capacity and global oil demand was rather sluggish. In contrast, we now project global oil supply and demand balances to remain in a structural deficit for most of the next six quarters.”
The upshot is that even though Obama slapped sanctions on Iran when oil prices were high, he had a series of tailwinds at his back that Trump will not enjoy. The oil market is tight and any effort to shut in Iranian supply will exacerbate the situation.
Moreover, the Obama administration took a careful and deliberate approach to sanctions, precisely because it wanted to avoid pushing up prices. U.S. politicians are always highly concerned about the political damage of high gasoline prices, which is a big reason why the Obama administration offered some pretty reasonable waivers to multiple countries that bought Iranian oil. The rule of thumb was that if a country cut imports from Iran by 20 percent, that was pretty good, and they received leniency from Washington on the rest.
The Trump administration instead has vowed some sort of “zero tolerance” policy, hoping to shut in as much Iranian supply as possible. The U.S. State Department said it would not be inclined to grant any waivers. Those comments alone sent oil prices shooting up in June.
But, the Trump administration might be forced into backing down if prices spike too high. Bank of America Merrill Lynch says that “a complete cutoff of Iran exports would be very hard to manage and likely result in an oil price spike above $120/bbl.”
John Kemp of Reuters summed it up earlier this month: “The White House can drive Iran’s oil exports to zero, or it can have moderate U.S. gasoline prices, but it probably cannot have both.”

domenica 8 luglio 2018

Why The Coming Oil Crunch Will Shock The World

My years working in corporate strategy taught me that every strategic framework, no matter how complex (some I worked on were hundreds of pages long), boils down to just two things:
  1. Where do you want to go? (Vision)
  2. How are you going to get there? (Resources)
Vision is the easier one by far. You just dream up a grand idea about where you want the company to be at some target future date, Yes, there’s work in assuring that everybody on the management team truly shares and believes in the vision, but that’s a pretty stratightforward sales job for the CEO.
By the way, this same process applies at the individual level, too, for anyone who wants to achieve a major goal by some point in the future. The easy part of the strategy is deciding you want to be thinner, healthier, richer, or more famous.
But the much harder part, for companies and individuals alike, is figuring out 'How to get there'. There are always fewer resources than one would prefer.
Corporate strategists always wish for more employees to implement the vision, with better training with better skills. Budgets and useful data are always scarcer than desired, as well.
Similar constraints apply to us individuals. Who couldn't use more motivation, time and money to pursue their goals?
Put together, the right Vision coupled to a reasonably mapped set of Resources can deliver amazing results. Think of the Apollo Moon missions. You have to know where you're going and how you're going to get there to succeed. That’s pretty straightforward, right?
So, it should be little surprise that the opposite, a lack of Vision and/or Resources, leads to underperformance -- and, eventually, decline. Think Kodak or Xerox. Or third-generation family wealth that has dwindled away to nothing. In a changing world, refusing to change with it is a losing strategy.
A great strategy aligns people’s interests and motivations with the available resources. More importantly, it provides a meaningful framework for action, one that gives a sense of purpose that will motivate everyone through difficult or trying times.
The grand goal of defeating the Nazis provided sufficient motivation for people to buy war bonds, scrimp on consumption, plant victory gardens, and go without nylon. A large part of our national resources were dedicated to the larger strategy of winning the war. Because of the strategy everyone shared, practically nobody complained of this repurposing as a 'time of sacrifice’ or as an imposed burden.
Given the right framework and the means to achieve it, people will literally crawl through mud in freezing temperatures -- and find it deeply satisfying. But given zero context or insufficient resources, people quickly become demoralized or rebellious (just observe how quickly most folks get royally pissed off at having to sit on the tarmac for a few extra minutes before their airplane takes off.)
Strategy matters. A lot.

A Nation Adrift, A World In Denial

Here's why I'm harping so much on strategy: the US is operating without a viable one.
We neither have a compelling Vision of where we want to go, nor any sense of the Resources required to change with the many transitions underway around us.
The current ‘strategy' (if we can be so generous as to call it that), is nothing more than "business-as-usual" (BAU).
The US is assuming it is always going to have more cars and trucks on the road this year than last year, more goods sold, a larger economy, more jobs, and the world’s most powerful military. That’s the BAU model. And it has largely worked for the past century.
But it can't work going forward. And the longer we pursue it, the more of our future prosperity we ruin.
Why? Because the future of everything is dependent on energy. More specifically: net energy.
Having a powerful military consumes a tremendous annual quantity of energy. The US military eats up 100 million barrels of oil each year. By itself, America's Department of Defense is the 34th largest consumer of oil in the world.
In total, the US consumes over 7 billion barrels of oil each year. And that represents only 37% of the nearly 100 quadrillion of BTUs of America's annual energy consumption (the rest coming from natural gas, coal, and other sources). For comparisons sake, the rest of the world consumes another 450 quadrillion BTUs.
And world energy demand just keeps on insatiably growing year over year. The (notoriously conservative) EIA predicts it will jump by 28% over the next two decades.
Will our energy production be able to keep up? As I've been warning for years, it will be very challenged to do so -- or, to do so at prices anywhere near as low as today's.

Putting Our Plight Into Concrete Terms

Putting those staggering figures aside for a moment, let's focus on one -- just one! -- of the crises ahead of us when it comes to our future energy needs.
The nations of the world have made the truly regrettable decision to build so much of their infrastructure using concrete reinforced with steel (re-bar, mesh, etc.). As I've explained in detail in previous articles, because the steel rusts over time, the concrete is busy being destroyed from the inside out -- something we can detect easily enough by the cracks and spalling (sheets flaking off) so readily apparent on every bridge that’s more than a couple of decades old.
This has created a ticking time bomb. The world's crumbling concrete buildings, bridges and roadways will have to be entirely replaced in just 40 to 100 years of their original construction dates. Where will all of the energy come from for that?
Also, note that China has poured more steel-reinforced concrete over just the past few years than the US did in the entire 20th century(!). All of this, too, will need to be replaced later this century.
Given that the sand required for all of the world's *current* concrete projects is now in very short supply, where all the sand will come from for all that future concrete and cement work? Who ever thought we could run out of sand?
But such are the unpleasant surprises that crop up during the late stages when running an exponential economic paradigm (i.e., "Growth forever!").

Fooling Oursevles

And it certainly doesn't help that we're remaining willfully blind to our situation.
It’s probably safe to say that the majority of the population in the US is confident that the "shale revolution" has assured America's energy security for a long time to come. Heck, the governor of Texas recently tweeted this to the world:
This is wrong on so many levels.
Yes, Texas produces oil and natural gas. But the US is still a net oil importer to the tune of about 3 million barrels per day. The US is not independent with respect to oil. And it won’t be until it produces another 3 million barrels per day (and that's making the generous assumption that consumption remains flat).
Further, to claim that the US will NEVER AGAIN depend on foreign oil is beyond bizarre. As I've been explaining for years, shale fields deplete and decline ferociously. Even the hyper-bullish EIA thinks that the shale fields will peak out in 2025 (I think earlier) and then go into permanent decline.
In my world, NEVER AGAIN is a lot farther out into the future than 2025. But Mr. Abbott has apparently ingested one too many petroleum sales pitches and received a terribly inaccurate impression about the true state of the US' energy predicament.
Much more likely is that US shale production does not EVER exceed US consumption before peaking out. So it would be more accurate to tweet the US is now and will ALWAYS AND FOREVER be dependent on foreign oil.
Finally, even if the US were a net oil exporter (highly unlikely), we’d still be tied to the world price for oil. Should foreign cartels decided to limit production and spike the price, that would still effect the US. So we still wouldn't be "independent" of their influence.
But sadly, Mr. Abbott speaks for the nation in that tweet. We're "swimming in energy" and need not have any worries. The drum of our chest-thumping will scare them away.
In other word:, there’s no strategy beyond BAU.
There's no acknowledgement of the challenges we face in the coming decades, of declining net energy per capita. Of greater competition between the developed and developing nations for the remaining BTUs. 
There's no compelling Vision to marshall the public towards that fits the realities of the future. We could, and should, be working on solutions for entering a "post-growth" era with grace. Or at a minimum, aggressively using today's Resources to create a new energy infrastructure that plans for the inevitable decline of fossil fuels.
We could be doing so much better than this.

Getting Our Priorities Straight

What if we started by embracing these three facts?
  1. Fossil fuels have provided a supernova of surplus energy. One that has enabled literally everything and everyone you see around you to spring into existence.
  2. Fossil fuels are a very recent discovery for humans (barely 150-years-old). Half of our consumption of them has happened in just the last 25 years alone (due to exponentially increasing use).
  3. Fossil fuels will not last forever. They are finite and will someday peak and then decline, representing a once-in-a-species bonanza never to be repeated.
It's beyond dispute that fossil fuels are 4/5ths of the current total global energy mix, that our use and dependence on them has grown exponentially over time, and that they are a non-rewable resource.
Among the fossil fuels, oil is, by far, the most critically-important to sustaining both our current level of technology and the human population. It's how we move virtually everything from point A to point B and it’s a critical element for food production and distribution. It also remains absolutely essential to the manufacture and installation of alt-energy systems, like wind and solar.
Given the three facts above, it only makes sense that a responsible global society should have a credible and very publicly-stated energy strategy providing a road map for weaning itself from fossil fuels before they become prohibitively expensive/scarce.
But since we don't have one, the alternative path we're taking is to sleepwalk into the future with no plan for feeding 9 billion people or re-building a crumbled global infrastructure -- let alone facing the additional challenges of running out of critical minerals, dealing with destroyed ecosystems, and being unable to field the necessary fuel and economic complexity to install a brand-new energy infrastructure measuring in the hundreds of quadrillions of BTUs. This BAU path will be marked by the three D’s: despair, demoralization, and death. (Is it any wonder that young people aren't as inspired by BAU as their parents' generation?)
So if instead we want a future that’s prosperous, regenerative and abundant, then we have to begin doing things very differently from BAU. And fast. (The best time to have started on this was decades ago.)
For example, if we decide we want electric transportation powered by wind and solar to be anything more than a meaningless tiny percentage of the total BTU mix, then we’re going to have to use a lot of fossil fuels to make that happen. It takes an enormous amount of fossil fuels to manufacture, install, maintain and repair/replace every single alt-energy component.
The question then becomes: Where do we want to be when that future arrives? If we want to have livable cities and towns with nearby greenbelts and an alt-energy infrastructure delivering clean energy sustainably forever into the future, then an enormous amount of planning and building is going to be required to get anywhere near close to that.
It all comes back to strategy. We need a compelling Vision of this future to inspire society, and then dedicate the appropriate Resources to make it happen.
With an appropriate energy strategy that matches reality, we can engineer a reasonably bright future. Without one, we’ll just pursue BAU until it literally destroys us as well as the ecosystems we depend on.

An New Energy Strategy

So here’s one way to go about doing that.
First, identify all the energy demands that absolutely have to happen just to maintain systemic integrity. The DoD has needs, the current fleets of emergency vehicles and school busses have needs, as does maintaining the existing stock of bridges, roads, and buildings. This exercise will reveal to all that simply maintaining 'the way things are' is extraordinarily energy-expensive. But it has to be done if we want to avoid economic collapse and massive joblessness. It also bears mentioning that the energy required to keep things going is energy that cannot be dedicated to building the new future. It’s a sunk-cost of prior decisions.
Second, make a credible list of energy needs for building the future we want. How many solar panels will that be? How many wind farms? How many miles of electrified train track? How many fully-electric vehicles will have to be built? How many charging stations with the nationwide road system need? What sorts of improvements and modifications to existing cities and towns will have to be made? This is the Vision. It answers the question Where are we going?
Of course, these sorts of new activities and building projects will be very energy expensive. If we want them to happen, then we have to consciously budget an appropriate amount of energy to accomplish the Vision.
Next, develop the very best possible estimate of total economically recoverable fossil fuels. Do this by finally measuring the full-cycle energy returned on energy invested (EROEI) for the remaining deposits. After all, we’re going to build out the future with the surplus energy extraced, not the gross (surplus = Total BTUs extracted - BTUs expended during extraction). This estimate will represent the total principal balance of our national energy bank account.
Last, calculate if there will be any energy left over. If so, save it for future generations. They'll have their own sets of needs and desires that we can't possible know today. (Sadly, I'm willing to wager that there won’t be any excess fossil energy to pass along).

A Sample Scenario

By way of example, suppose that the US undergoes a thorough, exhaustive, peer-reviewed and thoroughly debated examination of all known remaining fossil fuel resources – coal, natural gas and oil – using the very best and well-funded EROEI methodologies (yet to be developed, by the way). If we arbitrarily say that there are “100 units” of net energy left, we might discover this:
  • 25 units will be required to simply maintain the economic system so it doesn’t crash and can support the build-out of the new Vision for the future.
  • 60 units will be required to build that future out.
  • 15 units are not yet assigned. We might decide to leave those to future generations because that would be conscientious and prudent. Or perhaps we discover that they shouldn’t be burned because of the environmental impact.
Results such as these yield important insights.
First, we’d understand that if we accidentally burned through, say, 45 units blindly pursuing BAU, that would steal 25 units from building out the future we want.
Next, we'd realize better that our chances of manifesting the Vision are improved by limiting the amount we spend on maintenance. That insight would help to spur better decisions around conservation and efficiencies -- such as not driving 6,000 pound private SUV/Truck vehicles to transport a single passenger to a desk job, or building homes with inadequate insulation to save a few thousand dollars on the front end of a 100-year capital investment.
Finally, we’d appreciate how our energy resources are finite and limited, and that how we choose to utilize them is quite possibly the single most important decision society can possibly make. Leaving the fate of our precious energy resources to the short-term interests of the markets and politicians would suddenly look too risky and nonsensical. We'd agitate for greater stewardship of them.
Were I in charge, the most well-funded institution in the land would be the Energy Institute. Our very best and brightest minds would be heavily incentivized to work there, applying their considerable gifts at science and mathematics towards matching our energy resources with our shared national goals. Gone would be the days of our top talent working for Wall Street and private money funds to move electronic abstractions of wealth hither and yon, skimming money while creating absolutely nothing of lasting value for their country or the world.

The Coming Oil Crunch Will Shock The World

However, we both know that no such strategic energy plan is forthcoming. There’s no strategy in the US (or Japan or Europe or China, or anywhere) that aligns finite resources with a well-defined, sustainable vision of the future.
BAU rules the roost.
It’s so powerfully embedded that Ford Motor Company recently decided to scrap selling sedans and small cars in America. It will only manufacture SUVs, trucks and commercial vehicles. You know when Ford will no longer make cars, you’ve got to have really chugged the shale oil Kool-Aid to make that decision.
Concrete is still poured with steel rebar every day. New homes and commercial buildings are built with expected lifetimes of only several decades and little attention to insulation. And the Federal Reserve focuses with manic precision on assuring that the credit markets continue to grow exponentially.
Each of these and a million other activities consumes finite, irreplaceable energy at the expense of a sustainable future. At some point, perhaps already passed us, that goal becomes no longer possible.
My point is we don’t know where that line in the sand is. We haven’t done the work, made the plans, and performed the necessary visioning to know one way or the other.
But what we can be sure of is that BAU is headed in the wrong direction and it has no long term future. One way or the other, endless growth on a finite planet will run its course and end. The only remaining question left to answer is: How painful will the reckoning be?
None of us know what will finally break the largest and most destructive credit cycle ever unleashed on the world (thanks central banks!) but we all know that The Everything Bubble has a bitter end. All self-destructive delusions do.
Our analysis concludes that the hard-stop for this credit bubble is resource-based. And I predict it will be a sudden spike in the price of oil that will be the pin that the central bank enabled bubbles absolutely cannot grow beyond.
They will encounter this pin and burst.
There will be plenty of time for tears and regrets then. But right now? You need to get ready.
In Part 2: How The Coming Oil Shock Will Impact Absolutely Everything we go deep into the data showing why a global oil supply shortfall is unavoidable by or before 2020. That's less than two years away.
If gas prices at today's $70/barrel price bother you, you ain't seen nothing yet. The spike in oil's price that will result from the coming crunch will shock the world.
As an increase in the price of oil feeds into the cost of everything, it acts like an interest rate increase in terms of depressing economic growth. If we haven't already entered one yet, this coming shock will absolutely throw the global economy into recession. And if we're already in one when it hits, heaven help us.
Fonte: qui

Executive Summary

  • The Inevitable Supply Crunch
  • Why The Central Planners Are Making This Worse
  • Why The US Shale Industry Will Implode (And Soon)
  • The Growing Geopolitical Risks To Oil Supply
  • The Shock Felt Round The World
If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The Coming Oil Crunch Will Shock The World available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
As I’ve written extensively in the past, there are four entire years of missing upstream oil and gas investment (2014—2017) that will lead to an equivalent period of missing oil and gas supply sometime in the future. With the usual 5-7-year lag between discovery and production, my time frame for that was somewhere between the end of 2018 and 2022.
When -- not if -- that supply shock hits, there is no amount of fresh investment money that can rapidly bring new supply on line. Doing so just takes time -- measured in quarters or years:
As we enter into the second half of 2018, the supply/demand balance has already tipped into a slight deficit. I am clearly predicting that:
  1. this supply imbalance will only get worse, and that
  2. oil prices will have to rise to compensate.
The only development that could possibly prevent this from happening would be a rip-roaring recession, as only economic decline has proven to be able to reduce demand by as much as will needed to avoid this supply crunch.
As we can see from the below chart, the world has been...
Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)