Debt Threat Rises: The Government Will Soon Spend More On Interest Than On The Military

As debt and interest rates rise, the government is about to be in a disastrous situation. Very soon, they will spend more money paying interest on the national debt than they will on the bloated military budget.

By the year 2023, interest payments on the national debt could surpass the entire budget for the Department of Defense, according to the New York Times. The ballooning debt is being spurred by an inability by those who claim authority over the economy to stop spending and the hike in interest rates. With more and more money being robbed from the unborn and spent by the government and more going toward interest, political “leaders” will find it harder to do pretty much anything.

While many are worried about the crumbling infrastructure, others say it’ll be more difficult to make emergency moves like pulling the economy out of future recessions. Which is strange, because the government causes recessions and doesn’t “fix” them,they simply put band-aids on gaping wounds. This mentality that the government will save people when they are $21 trillion in debt is a delusional one, other economic experts have said.

In about 5 years, more than $900 billion in interest payments will be due annually, easily outpacing spending on several other socialist programs.

Already the fastest-growing major government expense, the cost of interest is on track to hit $390 billion next year, nearly 50 percent more than in 2017, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The inability of the government to rein in spending will eventually result in an economic meltdown the world had never seen nor is prepared for. The government literally cannot steal enough money from producers in the form of taxes to get out from under this problem anymore.

“It’s very much something to worry about,” said C. Eugene Steuerle, a fellow at the Urban Institute and a co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center in Washington. “Everything else is getting squeezed.”  Gradually rising interest rates would have made borrowing more expensive even without any additional debt, but the government never cuts spending. In fact, Republicans, who are supposed to be “fiscally conservative”,  while holding all three houses of government,  approved a budget bill in February that raised spending by $300 billion over two years.  All of these problems will add to the financial pressure.

The deficit is expected to total nearly $1 trillion next year for the first time since 2012, under the Obama Administration.

Former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, has even begun to sound the alarm on the government’s spending problem. At a recent round-table discussion with reporters at the Brookings Institution, Bernanke, former Treasury Secretaries Henry Paulson, and Timothy Geithner all expressed concerns that the next economic crisis will come with policymakers being unable to do anything about it. –SHTFPlan

The trade war will also make things difficult for those already struggling to make ends meet as jobs are lost and prices are raised to cover the cost of tariffs. The economy’s immediate future is looking incredibly bleak.

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com

Italian Bonds Slide After Italy's New Prime Minister Spooks Markets With "Radical" Plans

The eye of the hurricane may have passed over Italy and the winds are again starting to pick up speed, because shortly after Morgan Stanley laid out what a worse case scenario for Rome could look like (ugly, read here), Italian bonds started selling off again, with 2Y yields rising to session highs following Italian premier Conte's inaugural speech in which the populist premier spooked markets by reiterating that the new populist government will pursue a radical policy program, and highlighting legislative priorities that will be extremely costly - including the right to universal income, minimum wage, overhauling the healthcare system, prioritizing social rights, and so on - all without saying just how these will be paid for (spoiler alert: much more debt).

Conte also said that a new flat tax would be introduced, even if no timeframe has been provided, and there was no mention of avoiding the hike in sales taxes which is currently planned for 2019, or canceling the "Fornero" pension reform.

Amusingly, in the speech Conte also said that he plans on reducing public debt, although in light of the surge in spending which will not be financed with increased revenue, it is not clear how that can be achieved. As Bloomberg economist Stephanie Flanders notes "Italy cannot convincingly cut its public debt as a share of GDP without reasonable growth in nominal GDP (real growth plus inflation). Even the more optimistic forecasts do not point to nominal GDP growing much faster than 2.5% in the foreseeable future. By contrast, the average cost of its public debt is 3.1%."

A much more important chart is the following from Morgan Stanley showing what would happen to Italy's debt/GDP if interest rates rose even modestly from their artificially low levels.

As a result of Italy politely reminding the world that nothing has changed since the start of last week when the world woke up to the reality of a populist government in Europe's 3rd largest economy, Italian 2Y yields have spiked....

... with the move starting to seep across the Atlantic, sending the dollar to sessions highs...

... and 10Y yields back to lows.

Via Reuters, here are the key excerpts from Conte's speech (link to full speech here), highlights ours:

INTRODUCTION

“Today we come before you to ask for your trust not only in a government team, but also in a project for the change of Italy.”

“I do not think this is simple novelty. The truth is that we have brought with us radical change, of which we are proud.”

“I take on this task with humility, but also with determination, with the awareness of my limits, but also with passion.”

“The political forces that make up this government have been accused of being ‘populist’ and ‘anti-system’ ... If ‘populism’ means the ruling class listens to the needs of the people ... (and) if ‘anti-system’ means to aim to introduce a new system, which removes old privileges and encrusted power, well these political forces deserve both these epithets.”

EUROPE AND PUBLIC FINANCES

“We want to reduce the public debt, but we want to do it by increasing our wealth, not with austerity that, in recent years, has helped to make it (public debt) grow.”

“Italian public debt is fully sustainable today. However, its reduction must be pursued, but with a view to economic growth. Fiscal and public spending policy should be geared towards the pursuit of the objectives set for stable and sustainable growth.

“In Europe, these issues will be strongly pushed forward with the aim of changing its governance, a change already at the centre of reflection and discussion in all EU member states.

“We are optimistic about the outcome of these discussions and confident of our negotiating power, because we are facing a situation in which Italy’s interests ... coincide with the general interests of Europe, with the aim of preventing its possible decline. Europe is our home.”

PENSIONS AND CITIZEN’S WAGE

“The government’s goal is to provide income support for families most affected by socio-economic hardship. The support ... will be conditional on vocational training and job reintegration. We propose, in a first phase, to strengthen the employment centres.”

“We will also take action to help pensioners who do not have enough income to live in a dignified manner.”

“We need to cut the pensions and annuities of parliamentarians, regional councillors and employees of constitutional bodies ... The so-called ‘golden pensions’ are another example of unjustified privilege that must be opposed. We will intervene on pensions that exceed 5,000 euros per month when the sum has not been covered by the contributions paid.”

TAXES

“Our tax burden, combined with an excessive amount of bureaucracy, has a negative effect on the relationship between taxpayers and the state, and on the competitiveness of our country.”

“The goal is the ‘flat tax’, which is a reform with fixed tax brackets and a system of deductions that guarantees the progressiveness of the levy in full harmony with the principles of the constitution. This is the only way to bring about a drastic reduction in tax evasion, which will have benefits in terms of greater tax savings, greater consumer spending and investments, and increasing the tax base.”

IMMIGRATION

“We will end the immigration business, which has grown out of all proportion under the cloak of fake solidarity.”

“We will forcefully seek the overcoming of the Dublin Regulations in order to obtain the effective respect of the principle of equal distribution of the responsibility to set up an automatic system of obligatory re-distribution of asylum seekers.”

“We are not and will never be racists. We want procedures that determine refugee status to be certain and speedy, in order to effectively guarantee their (refugee) rights.”

FOREIGN POLICY

“First of all, we intend to reaffirm our convinced membership of NATO, with the United States of America as a privileged ally.”

“We will support opening up to Russia ... We will push for a review of the sanctions system, starting with those that risk humiliating Russian civil society.”

Fonte: qui

"For The First Time In Modern History" US Government Debt Will Surpass Household Debt

Last week, rating agency DBRS raised a red flag when it calculated that in the past decade average US wages have risen by only 5.7%, while consumer debt over the same period rose 60% more, or 9.3%. However, while the US household's reliance on debt to fill in the income gaps is hardly news, on Monday JPMorgan found another, even more concerning debt inflection point: household debt, fast as it may be rising, is about to be eclipsed for the first time ever by the even faster rising federal government debt.

As JPM writes in its weekly market recap, prior to the Financial Crisis, household debt relative to federal government debt hit a high of 3 to 1 times. Since then, a combination of bank credit  tightness and consumer prudence has sharply limited the growth in household debt, with liabilities increasing just 4% since 3Q 2008. However, JPM adds, "the same cannot be said of the federal government, with liabilities increasing almost 150% over the same period and nearly reaching household debt levels for the first time in modern history."

JPM continues:

On top of that, the CBO projects that, even excluding the impact of tax cuts, government debt levels will continue to march upward over the course of the next 10 years, ultimately hitting $25.5 trillion by the end of 2027.

While this does not point to an impending crisis, it does mean that, should another downturn occur, the government would be far less able to come to the rescue as it did in 2008. It also means that while tax cuts may take place today, it becomes all the more probable that they will become tax increases or spending cuts in the future, with tax increases likely to hit higher income households and elderly households being more vulnerable to spending cuts.

Finally, "this means that while consumers have taken steps on their own account to ensure a smaller debt burden, older and wealthier households should be particularly wary of the potential impact of rising government debt on their finances" especially once the next government - far more likely to be of the "wealth redistribution persuasion" - decides to do just that..

Fonte: qui